人口老龄化对产业结构调整的影响研究

Population Aging and Industrial Structure Adjustment: Influencing Mechanism

摘要: 随着人口老龄化程度不断加深，劳动力规模缩减，传统的产业发展模式进入瓶颈期，产业结构的调整升级受到一定的影响。在2020年全国第七次人口普查中，辽宁省老龄化程度位居第一位，因此十分有必要对辽宁省人口老龄化背景下的省域产业结构变化特征和趋势进行深入研究。本文在综合分析人口老龄化对产业结构调整的理论机制基础上，对产业结构合理化和高级化两个维度进行实证分析。研究结果表明辽宁省人口老龄化不会对产业结构合理化产生积极影响，但是会促进产业结构向高级化发展，因此辽宁省应转变产业发展方式，积极发展老年产业，健全养老服务体系，同时注重劳动力资源的合理配置，促进老龄化下的产业优化升级。

Abstract: With the deepening of the aging of the population and the reducing of the size of the labor force, the traditional industrial development mode has entered the bottleneck period, and the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure has been affected to a certain extent. In the seventh national population census in 2020, Liaoning Province is first in the aging degree. Thus, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the characteristics and trends of industrial structure change in Liaoning Province under the background of population aging. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the theoretical mechanism of the aging of population on the adjustment of industrial structure, this paper develops an empirical analysis of the two dimensions of industrial structure rationalization and upgrading. The results show that the aging of population in Liaoning Province will not have a positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure, but will promote the industrial structure to develop to an advanced level. Therefore, Liaoning Province should change the industrial development mode, actively develop the elderly industry, improve the old-age service system, and pay attention to the rational allocation of labor resources to promote the industrial optimization and upgrading under the aging.