内蒙古东部农牧交错带生态系统健康指数预测评估

Prediction and Evaluation of Ecosystem Health Index in the Agricultural Pastoral Ecotone in Eastern Inner Mongolia

摘要: 在全球生态问题备受瞩目的背景下，内蒙古东部农牧交错带作为重要生态屏障和粮食产区，其土地利用变化对生态系统健康影响深远。本研究综合运用ArcGIS空间分析技术、“压力–状态–响应”(PSR)模型与PLUS模型，深入剖析该区域2000~2020年土地利用变化及生态系统健康状况，并对2030年趋势进行预测。研究结果表明，从2000年至2020年，由于快速的城市化进程，耕地面积显著减少，大量耕地被转化为建筑用地；得益于区域内的生态保护与植被恢复措施，林地面积明显增加；生态健康状态显示出明显的空间分布差异，健康状态较好的区域主要集中在北部和西北部；生态健康状态总体呈恶化趋势，到2020年健康区域甚至几乎消失，但是在2030年恶化趋势可能会减缓，某些区域的生态健康甚至可能会有所恢复。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global ecological issues, the agricultural pastoral ecotone in eastern Inner Mongolia, as an important ecological barrier and food producing area, has a profound impact on ecosystem health due to land use changes. This study comprehensively utilizes ArcGIS spatial analysis technology, the “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) model, and the PLUS model to deeply analyze the land use change and ecosystem health status in the region from 2000 to 2020, and predict the trend for 2030. The research results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, due to the rapid urbanization process, the cultivated land area significantly decreased, and a large amount of cultivated land was converted into construction land; Thanks to the ecological protection and vegetation restoration measures in the region, the forest area has significantly increased; The ecological health status shows significant spatial distribution differences, with areas with good health status mainly concentrated in the north and northwest; The overall ecological health status is deteriorating, with healthy areas almost disappearing by 2020. However, by 2030, the trend of deterioration may begin to slow down, and there is a possibility that the ecological health of certain regions could even start to recover.