经济政策不确定性、融资结构与企业经营绩效——基于房地产上市公司数据

Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financing Structure and Business Performance—Based on Data from Listed Real Estate Companies

摘要: 本文主要研究的是经济政策的不确定性、融资结构与企业经营绩效三者之间的关系。通过建立门槛效应模型，将融资结构作为门槛变量，回归后发现其存在显著的双门槛效应，得出以下结论：(1) 经济政策不确定性对于企业而言弊大于利，对企业经营绩效有负向影响。(2) 融资结构的存在，使得经济政策不确定性对企业经营绩效的影响发生改变，当企业资产负债率小于24.46%时，融资结构会抑制经营绩效与经济政策不确定性的负相关关系。当企业资产负债率位于24.46%和84.73%之间时，融资结构对经济政策不确定性带来的负向影响的抑制作用开始逐渐减弱。当企业资产负债率高于84.73%时，企业的债务将加剧经济不确定性带来的对企业经营绩效的冲击。

Abstract: In the empirical study of economic policy uncertainty, financing structure and business performance, this paper establishes a threshold effect model and takes financing structure as a threshold variable, finds that there is a significant double threshold effect after regression, and draws the following conclusions: (1) Economic policy uncertainty does more harm than good to enterprises and has a negative impact on business performance. (2) The existence of financing structure changes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on business performance, and when the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is less than 24.46%, the financing structure will inhibit the negative correlation between business performance and economic policy uncertainty. When the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is between 24.46% and 84.73%, the dampening effect of financial structure on the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty has begun to fade. When the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is higher than 84.73%, corporate debt will exacerbate the impact of economic uncertainty on business performance.