从抑制到促进——东盟技术性贸易措施对中国农产品出口的U型影响
From Inhibition to Promotion—The U-Shaped Impact of ASEAN’s Technical Barriers to Trade on China’s Agricultural Product Exports
摘要: 东盟是我国农产品第一大出口市场，在中国东盟自贸区全面建成情况下，中国近年来频繁遭受东盟国家技术性贸易措施。本文基于人工收集的TBT-SPS通报数据，结合2010年到2022年中国农产品出口东盟各国数据，使用贸易引力模型定量检验东盟各国技术性贸易措施对中国农产品出口影响，以及技术性贸易措施对初级和加工两类农产品不同影响。研究发现技术性贸易措施对于农产品大类贸易量的影响具有U型，正式实施的第一年抑制农产品贸易，正式实施的第二年和第三年，对农产品贸易具有促进作用。从结构上看，技术性贸易措施对于中国加工农产品贸易具有持续促进作用。
Abstract: ASEAN is China’s largest export market for agricultural products. With the comprehensive establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, China has frequently encountered technical barriers to trade from ASEAN countries in recent years. Based on manually collected TBT-SPS notification data and combined with Chinese agricultural export data to ASEAN countries from 2010 to 2022, this paper quantitatively examines the impact of ASEAN countries’ technical barriers to trade on Chinese agricultural product exports using the gravity model of trade. It also analyzes the differential effects of technical barriers to trade on primary and processed agricultural products. The study finds that the impact of technical barriers to trade on the trade volume of agricultural products exhibits a U-shaped pattern, with the first year of formal implementation inhibiting agricultural product trade, while the second and third years of formal implementation have a stimulating effect on agricultural product trade. Structurally, technical barriers to trade have a sustained stimulating effect on the trade of processed agricultural products with China.
文章引用：单德好. 从抑制到促进——东盟技术性贸易措施对中国农产品出口的U型影响[J]. 电子商务评论, 2025, 14(3): 325-338. https://doi.org/10.12677/ecl.2025.143713

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