中国对沿线国家出口贸易的分析与潜力探索——基于新丝绸之路经济带的视角

Analysis of China’s Export Trade to Countries along the Route and Exploration of Its Potential —From the Perspective of the New Silk Road Economic Belt

摘要: 通过构建贸易引力模型，就2010~2021年我国的出口额、我国与沿线国家的GDP和彼此之间的距离用多元计量回归分析，利用Stata软件分析在新丝绸之路经济带建设下我国与沿线国家的出口贸易及其贸易潜力。研究表明，双方的经济规模对出口有积极影响，而双方的地理位置对出口有一定的消极影响。并且发现，中国仍然与其中超过一半的国家具有较大的经济贸易往来空间。研究认为政府可以通过加强建设设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通合作等重点措施，激发市场需求、提高贸易便利化、促进金融创新，升级产业结构，挖掘经济发展潜力，创造中国出口多元化历史性战略新机遇。

Abstract: By constructing a trade gravity model, this paper conducts a multiple econometric regression analysis on China’s export volume from 2010 to 2021, the GDP of China and the countries along the route, as well as the distances between them. Using Stata software, it analyzes China’s export trade with the countries along the route and its trade potential under the construction of the New Silk Road Economic Belt. The research shows that the economic scale of both sides has a positive impact on exports, while the geographical location between the two sides has a certain negative impact on exports. Moreover, it is found that China still has a large space for economic and trade exchanges with more than half of these countries. The research suggests that the government can take key measures such as strengthening cooperation in infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, and financial integration, stimulating market demand, improving trade facilitation, promoting financial innovation, upgrading the industrial structure, tapping the potential of economic development, and creating new historical strategic opportunities for the diversification of China’s exports.