可再生能源项目外源性风险评估研究

Research on the Exogenous Risk Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

摘要: 截止到2024年底，“一带一路”倡议提出已逾十年，它根源于中国的愿望，即通过加强国际合作，促进沿线国家的互利共赢，推动全球化进程。研究“一带一路”倡议下沿线国家中可再生能源的发展对经济增长的影响具有深远的意义。本文从政治风险、经济风险、社会风险和自然风险四个方面构建外源性风险评估指标体系。研究采用AHP-熵权法确定指标权重，结合未确知测度理论构建了风险评估模型。以巴基斯坦乌子高水电站为案例，运用本文所构建的风险评估模型，评估其项目风险等级为“较高”，实证证明了该模型具有较强的可靠性与实用性。本文构建了较为全面的风险评估指标体系，丰富了可再生能源项目外源性风险评估的相关研究，对促进相关项目的可持续发展具有现实意义。

Abstract: By the end of 2024, the Belt and Road Initiative has been proposed for more than ten years. It is rooted in China’s desire to promote mutual benefit and win-win results among countries along the route through strengthening international cooperation and promoting the process of globalization. It is of far-reaching significance to study the impact of the development of renewable energy on economic growth in countries along the Belt and Road. This article constructs an exogenous risk assessment index system from four aspects: political risk, economic risk, social risk, and natural risk. The study used the AHP-entropy weight method to determine the weight of indicators, and combined with the unascertained measurement theory to construct a risk assessment model. Using the Wuzi Gao Hydropower Station in Pakistan as a case study, utilizing the risk assessment model constructed in this paper, the project’s risk level is evaluated as “high”, it is empirically demonstrated that the model exhibits strong reliability and practicality. This article constructs a comprehensive risk assessment index system, enriches the relevant research on exogenous risk assessment of renewable energy projects, and has practical significance for promoting the sustainable development of related projects.