“双碳”目标下基于人口和经济变化的能源消费量预测模型
A Predictive Model of Energy Consumption Based on Population and Economic Changes under the “Dual Carbon” Goals
摘要: 本文基于“双碳”背景下探究了区域规划者的目标与决策性问题，规划者利用工程碳汇、碳交易政策来实现社会目标。本文首先利用相关性分析和专家问卷构建出了指标体系参数，分析相关参数趋势变化；其次运用多元线性回归、灰色预测模型来进行碳排放预测，在不同规划阶段给不同模型赋予不同的权重参数。最后，我们利用动态规划原理，控制碳政策的实施让“双碳”政策得以达成，通过控制政策力度参数变化得出了三种情景下的碳排放以及相关指标目标与路径。
Abstract: This paper explores the objectives and decision-making issues of regional planners under the “dual carbon” framework, where planners leverage engineering carbon sinks and carbon trading policies to achieve societal goals. Initially, correlation analysis and expert questionnaires are employed to construct an indicator system and its parameters, analyzing the trend changes of relevant parameters. Subsequently, multivariate linear regression and grey forecasting models are applied to predict carbon emissions, assigning different weight parameters to the models at various planning stages. Finally, using dynamic programming principles, the implementation of carbon policies is controlled to realize the “dual carbon” objectives. By adjusting the intensity parameters of the policies, the study derives carbon emissions and related indicator targets and pathways under three distinct scenarios.
文章引用：杨璐祯, 费晨. “双碳”目标下基于人口和经济变化的能源消费量预测模型[J]. 建模与仿真, 2025, 14(4): 499-513. https://doi.org/10.12677/mos.2025.144304

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