“一带一路”倡议下我国国际贸易与国际物流协同发展研究

Research on the Coordinated Development of China’s International Trade and International Logistics under the “Belt and Road” Initiative

摘要: 在“一带一路”倡议持续推进的背景下，我国国际贸易与国际物流之间的协同发展成为实现区域经济一体化与高质量开放的关键路径。本文基于2013~2024年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的相关数据，系统分析了我国国际贸易与物流的发展现状，并构建OLS与中介效应模型，从基础设施和政治稳定性两个维度探讨其协同机制。研究发现，“一带一路”倡议对贸易与物流的总体协同水平存在积极影响，但受样本和变量限制，其显著性在不同模型与区域之间表现不一。基础设施建设虽与倡议密切相关，但对协同发展的中介效应未能显著建立。通过稳健性与异质性检验进一步确认了模型的适用性与地区差异。结合SWOT分析与现有障碍识别，本文提出加强基础设施互联互通、建设信息协同平台及推进标准对接等对策建议，以提升我国在“一带一路”倡议框架下贸易与物流的融合水平，助力政策协同与区域经济整合。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the ongoing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the collaborative development of international trade and logistics has emerged as a vital approach to advancing regional economic integration and high quality opening up. This study draws on data from 2013 to 2024 concerning China’s trade and logistics interactions with countries along the BRI routes. Employing both OLS regression and a mediating effect model, it investigates the mechanisms through which infrastructure development and political stability influence trade logistics synergy. The empirical results suggest that the BRI exerts an overall positive influence on the coordination between trade and logistics, though the effects vary across models and regions due to limitations in sample size and variable construction. While infrastructure is significantly associated with the BRI, its mediating role in synergy development is not statistically significant. Robustness checks and heterogeneity analysis reinforce the model’s credibility and reveal notable regional differences. Based on SWOT analysis and identification of key obstacles, this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations including enhanced infrastructure connectivity, the establishment of integrated information platforms, and the alignment of multilateral standards to deepen trade logistics integration under the BRI framework and promote policy coherence and regional economic integration.