吸烟行为与肺结核传播动力学研究

Research on the Dynamics of TuberculosisTransmission in Relation toSmoking Behavior

摘要: 肺结核是全球范围内重要的公共卫生问题，尤其在吸烟人群中感染和发病风险尤为突出。本文基于SLIR(易感-潜伏-感染- 康复)模型，引入吸烟行为因素，将易感人群划分为吸烟易感者(S_s)和非吸烟易感者(S_n)，构建了一个改进的肺结核传播动力学模型。该模型综合考虑了吸烟者感染风险高、病死率高、康复率低等特征，系统分析吸烟行为对结核病传播路径的影响。通过对模型基本再生数(R_o)的推导、平衡点的存在性与稳定性分析，以及结合实际数据的数值模拟，证实了吸烟行为显著加剧了肺结核的传播潜力，而降低吸烟率可有效减少疾病流行水平。本研究为优化结核病防控策略，尤其是将控烟措施纳入综合干预方案，提供了理论支持和决策参考。

Abstract: Tuberculosis remains a critical global public health challenge, particularly exhibitingelevated infection and incidence risks among smoking populations. This study de.velops an enhanced tuberculosis transmission dynamics model by incorporating smok.ing behavior factors into an SLIR (Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered) framework.where susceptible populations are stratifed into smoking-susceptible individuals (S_s)and non-smoking susceptible individuals (S_n). The model systematically addressescharacteristic smoking-related features including heightened infection susceptibility.elevated mortality, and reduced recovery rates, Through derivation of the basic re.production number (R_o), existence and stability analysis of equilibrium points, anddata-driven numerical simulations, we demonstrate that smoking behavior significantlyamplifies tuberculosis transmission potential, while smoking rate reduction effectivelymitigates epidemic severity, These findings provide theoretical support and policyinsights for optimizing TB control strategies, particularly emphasizing the integrationof tobacco control measures into comprehensive intervention programs.