我国“十一五”期间的节能效果分析—基于完全因素分解模型的实证研究

Analysis of China’s Energy-Saving Effect during the 11th Five-Year-Plan Period—Based on the Empirical Study of Complete Decomposition Model

摘要: “十一五”期间，我国能源消费强度下降了19.06%，基本实现了“降低20%”的总体目标。本文将我国的能源消费划分为产业和居民生活消费两部分，运用完全因素分解法分别对产业部门的经济因素、结构因素和效率因素以及居民生活消费部门的人口因素、收入因素和效用因素的节能效果进行了分析。结果表明，在“十一五”期间，经济因素是拉动产业部门能源消费量增长的主要原因。产业部门节能主要是通过效率因素实现的，结构因素并没有实现节能。收入因素是居民生活消费部门能源消费量增长的主要原因，居民生活消费部门的节能主要是通过效用因素实现的。

Abstract: During the 11th Five-Year-Plan period, energy consumption intensity reduced by 19.06%, which was very close to a reduction of 20% in the main target. In this paper, China’s energy consumption was divided into industry sector and household sector. Based on a complete decomposition model, the energy consumption change of industry and household sectors were studied. The effect on the energy consumption change of industry sector was decomposed into economy factor, structure factor and efficiency factor. And the effect on the energy consumption change of household sector was decomposed into population factor, economy factor and utility factor. The results showed that ever- increasing energy consumption of industry sector was mainly attributed by the economy factor. The energy savings of industry sector was mainly achieved by efficiency factor, while the structure factor did not realize energy-saving. In household sector, income factor contributed to the energy consumption increase, and the utility factor was the main reason to achieve energy savings.