货币数量关系之间的一个控制方程—基于中国数据的实证分析

A Control Equation between Money Quantity Relations—Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

摘要: 本文从Friedman原始收入货币数量论出发，通过以货币化指数及其变化率代替Friedman收入货币数量方程式中的货币流通速度及其变化率变量，创建了一个新的货币数量方程式。由于该新方程式表现了实际经济增长率、通货膨胀率、货币增长率、以及货币化指数变化率四者之间的恒等式关系，所以，可以作为货币数量关系之间的一个控制方程。本文以中国货币M1和M2为对象，选取1993~2012年的年度数据为样本，先采用六个向量自回归(VAR)模型对相关变量在2013年的预期值进行预测，再采用本文所创建的货币数量控制方程进行验证，结果发现：货币M2的预期增长率值与控制方程一致，表明预测值较为合理，这时，2013年实际经济增长率预期值为8.6%，通胀率预期值为5.4%，M2增长率预期值为17.5%，其货币化指数变化率预期值为1.8%；而货币M1的预期值与控制方程差距较大，但能够确定其预期增长率值变化区间，即M1的增长率预期值属于区间[26.8%, 36.0%]，其货币化指数变化率预期值属于区间[10.7%, 18.9%]。

Abstract: Beginning from Friedman’s original quantity theory of money with income velocity, by using the variable of the rate of change of monetization index of money to substitute the variable of the rate of change of income velocity of money, a new quantity equation of money is created. Because the new quantity equation of money is an equal equation between the four variables of the real economic growth rate, inflation rate, nominal growth rate of money, and rate of change of monetization index of money, it can be used as a control equation between these four variables. On this paper the empirical analysis is based on Chinese data of money M1 and M2. The time period is during the yearly period of 1993-2012. After building six vector autoregressive (VAR) models, the values of four variables in 2013 have been predicted. When the predicted values are led to the new control quantity equation of money, it has shown a consistent relation between the predicted values and the control equation for money M2. In 2013, the predicted value of the real economic growth will be 8.6%, the inflation rate will be 5.4%, the nominal growth rate of M2 will be 17.5%, and the rate of change of monetization index of M2 will be 1.8%. However, for money M1, only a predicted value interval can be determined, where the nominal growth rate of M1 will belong to the interval of [26.8%, 36.0%], and the rate of change of monetization index of M1 will belong to the interval of [10.7%, 18.9%].