数字贸易对制造业全球价值链地位影响的实证研究——吸收能力的调节作用

Empirical Study on the Impact of Digital Trade on the Global Value Chain Position of Manufacturing Industry—The Regulatory Effect of Absorption Capacity

摘要: 在全球经济加速迈向数字化的背景下，数字贸易正在成为推动产业结构升级和重塑国际分工格局的重要力量。制造业作为全球价值链(GVC)中的核心环节，其地位提升不仅关乎国家附加值获取能力，也关系到经济高质量发展的战略目标。本文基于2011~2023年61个国家的面板数据，创新性地构建了一套涵盖数字贸易基础设施、创新能力、ICT产品贸易和数字产业化贸易的综合指标体系，并采用双向固定效应模型进行实证分析，以精确捕捉国家间和时间上的异质性特征。研究发现，数字贸易与制造业GVC地位之间存在显著的“U型”非线性关系：在数字贸易发展初期，基础设施不足和转型成本高企可能暂时抑制制造业价值链升级；但随着数字生态环境的完善，其促进作用逐渐凸显。此外，国家数字吸收能力的提升显著强化了数字贸易对制造业GVC地位的正向影响，表现为吸收能力越强，价值链跃升越快。因此，各国在政策制定中应着重强化数字基础设施建设、数字技能培养和市场转化机制，以有效释放数字贸易红利。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of an accelerating global shift toward digitalization, digital trade has emerged as a key driver of industrial upgrading and the restructuring of international division of labor. As the core component of global value chains (GVCs), the position of the manufacturing sector is crucial not only for enhancing a country’s ability to capture value-added but also for achieving strategic goals related to high-quality economic development. Based on panel data from 61 countries spanning 2011 to 2023, this study constructs an innovative composite index encompassing digital trade infrastructure, innovation capacity, ICT goods trade, and trade in digitalized industries. A two-way fixed effects model is employed to accurately capture heterogeneity across countries and over time. The findings reveal a significant U-shaped nonlinear relationship between digital trade and the GVC position of manufacturing. In the early stages of digital trade development, inadequate infrastructure and high transition costs may temporarily hinder value chain upgrading; however, as the digital ecosystem matures, its facilitating effect becomes increasingly evident. Furthermore, the enhancement of national digital absorptive capacity significantly strengthens the positive impact of digital trade on manufacturing GVC position—countries with stronger absorptive capacity experience faster value chain advancement. Therefore, policy efforts should focus on improving digital infrastructure, strengthening digital skill development, and enhancing market transformation mechanisms to fully unleash the dividends of digital trade.