考虑救援行为的地铁水灾行人疏散建模与仿真

Pedestrian Evacuation Modeling and Simulation in Subway Flooding Considering Rescue Behavior

摘要: 地铁水灾人员疏散与救援问题是城市公共安全管理中的重要研究方向。本文以太原市辑虎营地铁站为研究对象，基于AnyLogic仿真平台，考虑了洪水蔓延过程、异质行人特性、生存质量变化机制及救援人员的响应行为，构建了一个多因素耦合的地铁水灾疏散与救援仿真模型。模型中提出“生存质量值”，用于动态刻画个体在水深变化过程中的状态演化，设置了行人从行走、爬行到完全失去行动能力的状态转变逻辑；同时设计了多救援者协同机制，通过任务分配互斥策略提升资源调度效率。模拟分析了救援人数、进场时间、行人密度等因素对疏散效率与生存率的影响。结果表明，针对短时强降水情境下雨水倒灌地铁站场景，救援人员的数量与到达时间是影响个体生存率和整体疏散效率的关键因素；适度密度有助于行人逃生，而过高密度则加剧拥堵，增加个体在水灾中的滞留时间，提高救援难度；老年人因初始生存质量值较低，更易进入行动受限状态，需被优先纳入救援对象。本文研究结果为地铁水灾情境下的应急响应优化提供了理论依据，也为灾害环境下异质个体行为建模与智能体交互研究提供了新思路。

Abstract: Evacuation and rescue in subway flooding scenarios have become key concerns in the field of urban public safety management. This study is based on the AnyLogic simulation platform and takes the Jihuying subway station in Taiyuan as a case study. Considering the spread of flooding, heterogeneous pedestrian characteristics, survivability dynamics, and the response behavior of rescuers, a multi-factor coupled simulation model for flood evacuation and rescue in subway environments is developed. Numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the impact of rescuers’ arrival time, number of rescues and pedestrian density on evacuation efficiency and individual survivability. Results indicate that, under heavy rainfall leading to rapid subway flooding, the number and timely arrival of rescuers are critical to improving individual survival and overall evacuation performance. Furthermore, while moderate pedestrian density facilitates orderly evacuation, excessive density tends to cause congestion, prolong evacuation time, and increase the difficulty of rescue operations. Elderly individuals, due to their lower initial survivability quality value, are more likely to enter a state of limited mobility and therefore should be prioritized as rescue targets. The research results will provide theoretical guidance for optimizing emergency response strategies, and offer new insights into heterogeneous agent behavior modeling and multi-agent interactions in disaster environments.