电子产业链安全性分析与应对策略：基于感应度与影响力系数的实证研究

Analysis and Mitigation Strategies for Electronic Industry Chain Security: An Empirical Study Based on Sensitivity and Influence Coefficients

摘要: 随着全球电子产业链的深度融合与快速发展，电子产业在全球经济中的战略地位愈加重要。然而，随着技术封锁、贸易摩擦等风险因素的增加，电子产业链的安全性逐渐成为关注焦点。本文综述了电子产业链中各关键环节的风险，结合感应度系数与影响力系数提出了风险评估的新方法，并以2019年日本光刻胶断供事件为背景，通过数据分析识别了中国电子产业链的薄弱环节。进一步分析表明，全球化的技术封锁和国内外产业链依赖的失衡是当前电子产业链面临的主要风险。为此，本文提出了通过提升国产核心技术研发能力、加强产业协同、优化政策支持等途径，减少外部风险的干扰，提高产业链的自给自足能力。此外，本文还探讨了电子产业链未来的发展方向与潜在挑战，并提出了相应的政策建议，以助力中国电子产业链的稳定与可持续发展。

Abstract: With the deep integration and rapid development of global electronic industry chains, the strategic position of the electronics industry in the global economy is becoming increasingly significant. However, with the rising risks such as technology blockades and trade frictions, the security of the electronic industry chain has become a focal point of attention. This paper reviews the risks of key segments in the electronic industry chain, proposes a new risk assessment method based on the sensitivity and influence coefficients, and uses the 2019 Japanese photoresist export ban event as a case to identify weak links in China’s electronic industry chain through data analysis. Further analysis reveals that the main risks facing the electronic supply chain are the globalization of technological blockades and the imbalance of domestic and international industry chain dependencies. In response, this paper suggests ways to enhance domestic core technology research and development, strengthen industrial collaboration, and optimize policy support to reduce external risks and improve the self-sufficiency of the industry chain. In addition, the future development directions and potential challenges of the electronic industry chain are explored, and corresponding policy recommendations are provided to support the stable and sustainable development of China’s electronic industry chain.