基于数值模拟的地下水累计亏空量估算：以安阳市为例

Estimation of Accumulated Groundwater Deficit Based on Numerical Simulation: A Case Study of Anyang City

摘要: 为了高精度估算区域的地下水累计亏空量，以安阳市为研究案例，结合区域内94个地下水观测井的水位数据、水文地质参数、地层高程数据等基础资料，建立地下水数值模拟模型，采用矩形剖分与线性插值法模拟水位变化，按均衡公式逐年计算区域亏空量。结果显示：(1) 1977~2016年累计亏空量81.64亿m³；(2) 1991~2000年亏空量最大(32.82亿m³)，2011~2016年降至7.64亿m³；(3) 滑县、内黄县累计亏空量占全市的75.86%，情景模拟显示，即便削减50%开采量，至2035年滑县、内黄县仍需回灌补源。数值模拟结果85%的月误差 < 1 m，满足区域模型的误差限值要求，该研究方法可为区域估算地下水亏空量提供技术参考。

Abstract: To accurately estimate the accumulated groundwater deficit in a specific region, this study selected Anyang City as the research area and established a groundwater numerical simulation model based on water level data from 94 observation wells, regional hydrogeological parameters, and stratigraphic elevation data. The simulation of water level changes was conducted using rectangular zoning and linear interpolation methods, while the annual groundwater deficit was calculated using a water balance equation. The results indicate the following: (1) The accumulated groundwater deficit from 1977 to 2016 reached 8.164 billion cubic meters; (2) The period from 1991 to 2000 experienced the highest deficit, amounting to 3.282 billion cubic meters, which subsequently decreased to 0.764 billion cubic meters between 2011 and 2016; (3) Huaxian County and Neihuang County contributed 75.86% of the total groundwater deficit in the city. Scenario simulations further reveal that even with a 50% reduction in extraction volume, these two counties will still require artificial recharge and water resource replenishment by 2035. The numerical simulation demonstrated high accuracy, with 85% of monthly errors falling below 1 meter, satisfying the acceptable error range for regional modeling. The paper can provide technical references for estimating regional groundwater deficits and managing the development and utilization of water resources.