科技成果转化中初创企业与在位企业竞合的战略选择

Strategic Choices in Coopetition between Start-Ups and Incumbents during Technology Commercialization

摘要: 在科技成果转化过程中，初创企业与在位企业的竞合关系直接影响到企业收益。本研究通过构建初创企业与在位企业竞合模型，量化分析自主转化与合作转化收益差异，揭示双方战略选择的内在机制。研究发现：自主转化收益与自身研发成功概率、科技成果转化能力正相关，且与创新竞争对手的研发成功概率及创新价值呈负相关。合作转化中，合作选择取决于初创企业的创新成功概率，存在合作决策阈值$Z$ ：当$Z>0$ 时，创新成功概率低、颠覆性潜力强的初创企业将会与在位企业达成合作；当$Z<0$ 时，创新成功概率高、颠覆性潜力弱的初创企业将会与在位企业达成合作，突破传统以技术为唯一优先考量的合作逻辑。

Abstract: In the process of technology commercialization, the coopetition relationship between start-ups and incumbents exerts a direct impact on their respective benefits. This research constructs a coopetition model for the two types of enterprises, quantitatively analyzes the benefit discrepancies between independent commercialization and cooperative commercialization, and reveals the inherent mechanism underlying the strategic choices of both parties. The results indicate that: the benefits of independent commercialization are positively correlated with an enterprise’s own R&D success rate and technology commercialization capability, while negatively correlated with the R&D success probability and innovation value of its innovative competitors. In cooperative commercialization, the cooperation decision hinges on the innovation success rate of start-ups, with a cooperative decision threshold $Z$ identified: when $Z>0$ , start-ups with a low probability of successful innovation but strong disruptive potential will cooperate with incumbents; when $Z<0$ , start-ups featuring high innovation success rates but weak disruptive potential will engage in cooperation with incumbents. This finding breaks through the traditional cooperation logic that prioritizes technology as the sole criterion.