银发经济市场转型的异质性测度及政策适配路径研究——基于分位数回归与系统动力学仿真

Research on Heterogeneity Measurement of Market Transformation in the Silver Economy and Policy Adaptation Paths—Based on Quantile Regression and System Dynamics Simulation

摘要: 本文以2015~2023年中国31个省份面板数据为基础，基于分位数回归与系统动力学仿真协同框架，经Python数据预处理后，通过分位数回归研究市场异质性，再用系统动力学仿真政策路径，分析我国银发经济所处情况。研究发现，老年群体消费具有显著分层效应，低收入群体对老龄化率上升呈负面响应，高收入群体收入弹性达0.86；系统动力学仿真验证了“财政补贴 + 技术赋能”等优化政策组合的有效性，可使银发经济产值增速提升至6.8%，较基准情景提高61.9%，缩小城乡消费差距至1.2倍，高附加值产业对缓解供需缺口作用关键。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2015 to 2023, this paper adopts the collaborative framework of quantile regression and system dynamics simulation. After preprocessing the data with Python, the market heterogeneity is studied through quantile regression, and then the policy path is simulated by system dynamics to analyze the situation of China’s silver economy. The research finds that the consumption of the elderly group has a significant stratification effect. The low-income group shows a negative response to the increase in the aging rate, and the income elasticity of the high-income group reaches 0.86. System dynamics simulation verified the effectiveness of the optimized policy combination such as “fiscal subsidies + technological empowerment”, which can increase the growth rate of the silver economy’s output value to 6.8%, a 61.9% increase compared to the benchmark scenario, and narrow the consumption gap between urban and rural areas to 1.2 times. High value-added industries play a key role in alleviating the supply and demand gap.