云南旅游经济影响因素及发展路径研究

Study on the Influencing Factors and Development Paths of Tourism Economy in Yunnan

摘要: 本文以云南省为研究对象，结合主成分分析(PCA)与因子分析方法，系统探究经济高质量发展背景下旅游经济的影响机制及发展路径。通过选取云南省16个地州市的12项初始指标，经数据预处理剔除1项异常值后，保留住宿餐饮单位数、旅行社数量、客房数等11项指标。数据标准化后，KMO检验值为0.834 (Bartlett检验P < 0.001)，表明变量间相关性显著，适合因子分析。通过累计方差贡献率(89.9%)与碎石图提取两个公共因子：第一因子(F₁)聚焦旅游产业基础设施与相关产业协同支撑力，第二因子(F₂)反映地区经济水平对旅游业的资源保障作用。基于因子得分与综合得分排名，昆明以8.79分居首位，其基础设施完善、第三产业发达；怒江(−2.68分)因区位劣势与经济基础薄弱排名末位。研究提出优化产业规模、提升居民消费能力、强化资源投入等建议，为云南旅游业高质量发展提供参考。

Abstract: This paper takes Yunnan Province as the research object and systematically explores the influencing mechanism and development path of tourism economy under the background of high-quality economic development by combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and factor analysis methods. By selecting 12 initial indicators from 16 prefecture-level cities and autonomous prefectures in Yunnan Province, 11 indicators including the number of accommodation and catering establishments, the number of travel agencies, and the number of guest rooms are retained after data preprocessing to eliminate 1 outlier. After data standardization, the KMO test value is 0.834 (Bartlett test P < 0.001), indicating that there is a significant correlation between variables, which is suitable for factor analysis. Two common factors are extracted based on the cumulative variance contribution rate (89.9%) and the scree plot: the first factor (F₁) focuses on the tourism industry infrastructure and the collaborative support of related industries, and the second factor (F₂) reflects the role of regional economic level in providing resource guarantee for the tourism industry. Based on the factor scores and the ranking of comprehensive scores, Kunming ranks first with 8.79 points due to its improved infrastructure and developed tertiary industry; Nujiang (−2.68 points) ranks last due to its location disadvantages and weak economic foundation. The study puts forward suggestions such as optimizing industrial scale, enhancing residents’ consumption capacity, and strengthening resource input, so as to provide references for the high-quality development of Yunnan’s tourism industry.