考虑交通态势数据的养老服务站可达性研究

Research on the Accessibility of Elderly Care Service Stations Considering Traffic Condition Data

摘要: 随着社会经济发展和人口老龄化进程加快，养老服务需求日益增长，各地政府愈发重视养老服务资源的均衡布局。养老服务设施的可达性对城市老龄友好型社会建设具有重要作用，通过评估其空间分布，能够识别资源短缺区域和分布不均衡问题，是衡量养老服务分配地域公平性的有效方法。因此，对养老服务设施的空间可达性展开研究具有重要意义。本文以济南市养老服务设施布局为研究对象，利用GIS空间分析技术，基于养老服务设施POI点、交通路网、交通态势等数据构建了地理空间数据库，通过建立成本距离法等模型，对济南市养老服务设施的可达性进行量化分析，并评价其空间分布特征。结果表明：(1) 在养老设施和路网密度较高的中心城区，步行、骑行和机动车三种出行方式的可达性差异不大，均保持较高水平；而在设施分布较少的南部山区等外围区域，机动车和骑行方式的可达性明显优于步行。(2) 从空间格局来看，市中区北部、天桥区南部等核心区域15分钟可达性表现突出，而南部山区、历城区东南部等受地形限制的区域可达性相对较弱。(3) 交通拥堵分析显示，虽然高峰时段拥堵区域与养老设施密集区存在重叠，但整体影响有限，72.96%的区域保持15分钟内可达，22.17%的区域需15~30分钟，所有区域均在90分钟内可达，表明济南市养老服务设施的可达性整体处于较好水平。研究结果可为济南市养老服务资源的优化配置提供科学依据，也为国内同类城市的养老设施规划提供参考借鉴。

Abstract: With the socio-economic development and the accelerated aging of the population, the demand for elderly care services has been growing rapidly. Governments at all levels are placing increasing emphasis on the balanced distribution of elderly care service resources. The accessibility of elderly care facilities plays a crucial role in building an age-friendly urban society. By evaluating their spatial distribution, it is possible to identify areas with resource shortages and uneven distribution, serving as an effective method to measure the geographical fairness of elderly care service allocation. Therefore, researching the spatial accessibility of elderly care facilities is of significant importance. This paper focuses on the layout of elderly care facilities in Jinan, utilizing GIS spatial analysis techniques to construct a geospatial database based on POI data of elderly care facilities, transportation networks, and traffic conditions. By employing models such as the two-step floating catchment area method (2SFCA), the study quantitatively analyzes the accessibility of elderly care facilities in Jinan and evaluates their spatial distribution characteristics. The results indicate that: (1) In central urban areas with high densities of elderly care facilities and road networks, there is little difference in accessibility among walking, cycling, and motorized transportation, all maintaining relatively high levels. In contrast, in peripheral regions such as the southern mountainous areas with fewer facilities, motorized and cycling accessibility are significantly better than walking. (2) In terms of spatial patterns, core areas such as the northern part of Shizhong District and the southern part of Tianqiao District exhibit outstanding 15-minute accessibility, while regions constrained by terrain, such as the southern mountainous areas and the southeastern part of Licheng District, show relatively weaker accessibility. (3) Traffic congestion analysis reveals that although peak-hour congestion overlaps with areas densely populated by elderly care facilities, the overall impact is limited. Specifically, 72.96% of the areas remain accessible within 15 minutes, 22.17% require 15~30 minutes, and all areas can be reached within 90 minutes, indicating that the accessibility of elderly care facilities in Jinan is generally at a favorable level. The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of elderly care resources in Jinan and serve as a reference for the planning of elderly care facilities in similar cities across China.