区域宏观经济对卷烟结构指标的分析与预测——以湖北省恩施州为例

Analysis and Prediction of Regional Macroeconomics on Cigarette Structure Indicators—A Case Study of Enshi Prefecture in Hubei Province

摘要: 本文从区域宏观经济对卷烟销售结构的影响角度出发，利用相关分析和逐步回归分析探讨了2016~2024年恩施州宏观经济指标对卷烟销量和均价的影响，确定了卷烟销量及均价与当地的经济水平(地区生产总值、人均生产总值、城镇及农村居民可支配收入、城镇化率等)有极显著相关性(p < 0.01)、与居民消费价格指数显著负相关(p < 0.05)。逐步回归分析表明，城镇居民可支配收入是卷烟销量、均价最重要的影响因素，对2025~2026年卷烟销量的预测效果较好(与目标销量相差0.23%~1.48%)、对均价的预测效果稍差(与目标均价相差7.75%~11.18%)，为恩施州卷烟市场销量规划及未来卷烟结构优化明确了方向。

Abstract: This paper studied the impact of regional macroeconomic factors on cigarette sales structure. Using correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, it explored the influence of macroeconomic indicators in Enshi Prefecture from 2016 to 2024 on cigarette sales volume and average price. The results revealed highly significant correlations (p < 0.01) between cigarette sales volume, average price and local economic indicators (including regional GDP, per capita GDP, urban and rural residents’ disposable income), while also showing a significant negative correlation with the Consumer Price Index (p < 0.05). Stepwise regression analysis indicated that urban residents’ disposable income was the most critical influencing factor for both cigarette sales volume and average price. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance for cigarette sales volume in 2025~2026 (with forecast errors ranging between 0.23% and 1.48%), and weak predictive performance for average price in 2025~2026 (with forecast errors ranging between 7.75% and 11.18%). This paper provides clear guidance for sales planning and future product structure optimization in Enshi’s cigarette market.