北京“24 节气”过敏性鼻炎发病高峰的预测研究

A Study of 24 Sola Terms Prediction of Allergic Rhinitis Peak Incidence in Beijing

摘要:

根据北京市同仁医院 4 年(2007~2010 年)逐日皮肤点刺试验的过敏性鼻炎和北京市观象台的气象要素资料，按 24 节气纪时法进行统计相关分析，得出过敏性鼻炎的高峰值出现在处暑节气，气温和水汽压等气象要素的高峰值出现在大暑节气，研究发现各节气的气温和水汽压等气象要素与隔节气的过敏性鼻炎之间存在一定关联。由此，建立 6 个过敏性鼻炎的非线性预报方程，通过了相应的统计学检验(rα = 0.01 = 0.2670，Fα = 0.01 = 6.965)。历史拟合表明，过敏性鼻炎的预报值与实际发病趋势相符，得出结论，根据节气的水汽压和气温统计值可以预测未来隔节气的过敏性鼻炎的发病趋势，与此同时，还可为各级卫生部门和市民预防保健提供客观的提示性信息。

Abstract: Based on 24 solar terms, the daily data of four years’ (2007-2010) skin prick test of allergic rhinitis in Beijing Tongren Hospital and the meteorological data of Beijing Observatory were analyzed by correlation analysis, which reached a conclusion that the maximum of allergic rhinitis occurred at the end of heat and the peak of meteorological elements including air temperature, vapor pressure and so on appeared in great heat. It was found that there was a certain correlation between allergic rhinitis in next across solar term and meteorological elements including air temperature and vapor pressure etc. in each solar term. Therefore, 6 nonlinear prediction equations were established and passed the statistical tests (rα = 0.01 = 0.2670, Fα = 0.01 = 6.965). History matching indicated that the predicted value of allergic rhinitis is consistent with the actual incidence trends. So we draw a conclusion that allergic rhinitis incidence trends could be forecasted by air temperature and vapor pressure in each solar term. Meanwhile, service information about allergic rhinitis prevention could be provided for all levels of health departments and citizens.