基于协整理论和VAR模型的城市群内部经济关系研究——以滇中城市群为例

The Study for Internal Economic Relationship of the Urban Agglomeration Based on Cointegration Theory and VAR Model——Illustrated by Central Yunnan Province as an Example

摘要: “积极稳妥地推进城镇化”自纳入我国“十五”规划以来，已成为国家一项基本发展战略。因此，准确地刻画城市群内部经济关系，明确城市群发展状态，对我国各个城市群的发展和城镇化建设意义重大。本文引入了协整理论和VAR模型对城市群内部经济关系进行了深入研究，并以滇中城市群为例进行了实证分析，验证了该方法在研究城市群内部经济关系以明确城市群发展状态中的实用性和有效性，探究了滇中城市群内部的经济关系。研究结果和方法对我国目前已经以及正在形成的城市群内部经济关系的研究具有较好的借鉴作用。

Abstract: Since the 10th Five-Year Plan of China, “actively and steadily promoting urbanization” has been a fundamental development strategy in our country. Therefore, it is very important for the development of every urban agglomeration and our national urbanization construction to study the internal economic relationship of the urban agglomeration and further clarify the state of development of the urban agglomeration. This paper introduces the theory of cointegration and VAR model and we use urban agglomeration in central Yunnan as an example for empirical analysis. The usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed methods are illustrated using an example of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan. And this paper deeply analyses the internal economic relationship of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan. The conclusion is drawn by analyzing the results. We found that the proposed methods are applicable for our country to study the internal economic relationship and accurately reflect the overall state of development of urban agglomerations in China.