二代流动儿童回流决策的影响因素研究

A Study on the Influencing Factors of Second-Generation Migrant Children’s Return Decision-Making

摘要: 改革开放以来，我国人口的迁移流动更加频繁，由此出现了大量二代流动儿童，然而由于户籍、家庭等原因，这些儿童又面临着自愿或被动回流的境况。本文使用2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据，对0~17岁二代流动儿童回流原因进行分析，并进一步考察了父母留居意愿对回流决策的影响。结果表明：1) 义务后教育阶段的15~17岁流动儿童回流更容易回流；2) 生产运输相关人员子女更容易回流；3) 受教育程度低的父母，子女更容易回流；4) 跨省迁移的家庭，子女更容易回流；5) 东部地区的二代流动儿童比其他地区更容易回流；6) 留居时间越短的家庭，子女越容易回流。

Abstract: Since the reform and opening up, the migration has become more frequent, resulting in a large number of second-generation migrant children. However, due to household registration, family and other reasons, these children are faced with voluntary or passive return. Based on the data of 2018 China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey, this paper analyzes the reasons for the return of second-generation migrant children aged 0~17 years, and further examines the impact of parents’ willingness to stay on return decision-making. The results show that: 1) After compulsory education, migrant children aged 15~17 are more likely to return; 2) If parents are engaged in production and transportation-related occupations, their children are more likely to return; 3) Parents with lower education level, children are more likely to return; 4) Children in inter-provincial migration families are more likely to return; 5) The second-generation migrant children in the eastern region are more likely to return than other regions; 6) The shorter the residence time of the family, the easier the children return.