江苏省用水演变驱动因素研究

Study on Driving Factors of Water Utilization Structure Evolution in Jiangsu Province

摘要: 为正确理解江苏省社会经济发展与产业水资源利用量变化之间的关系，对产业用水变动进行影响因素分析。以扩展型可比价投入产出序列表数据为基础，构建投入产出结构分解模型，将1997~2007年四个时间段江苏省产业用水变动的影响因素分解为产业技术效应、用水强度效应和最终需求效应。从“产业整体–三大产业–各国民经济部门”三个层面剖析产业用水结构演变的三大影响因素的效应，并应用模糊聚类的方法，将各国民经济部门的三大影响因素进行分异分析。研究结果表明，最终需求效应对产业用水变动的影响最大，是产业用水的拉动效应，产业技术效应和用水强度效应是产业用水的抑制效应，其中用水强度效应是节水的关键因素；三大效应对三产用水变动所起的正负效应方向整体一致，但驱动强度不同，且随着时间的推移，呈现不同的发展态势；在未来一定时期内，最终需求效应所起的拉动作用将越来越小，而用水强度效应的抑制作用将越来越明显。

Abstract: In order to indicate the relation between social development and water resources use in Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzes the factors driving the change of water uses. Based on the statistics provided by the extended comparable I-O tables, this paper established an I-O structural decomposition model in which influence factors during four time periods from 1997-2007 of Jiangsu Province’s industrial water change have been decomposed into industrial technology effect, water utilization intensity effect as well as final demand effect. In three aspects “the whole industry-three industries-every national economic sector”, we analyze the three influence factors’ effects of industrial water utilization structure evolution and adopt the method of fuzzy clustering to make the differentiation analysis of the three influence factors of every sector. The results show that final demand effect which pulls industrial water utilization is the most significant factor in industrial water utilization change, and that industrial technology effect and water utilization intensity effect restrain water utilization, the former of which is the key factor of water-saving. Three effects’ driving direction (positive or negative) remained much same during the four periods, but effects driving strengths were different. With the passage of time, they present different development trends; in the next period of time, the pulling effect of final demand effect will become smaller and smaller while the inhibitory effect of water utilization intensity effect will become more and more obvious.