收入与生育决策的异质性研究：基于扬州市区的调查

Heterogeneous Research on Income and Fertility Decision-Making: A Survey Based on Urban Areas of Yangzhou

摘要: 为应对我国生育率持续走低的挑战、提升生育支持政策精准性，本研究以扬州市区20~40岁女性为对象，基于贝克尔家庭经济学等三大理论，通过174份有效问卷，探究收入与生育决策的异质性关系及影响因素。结果表明，收入与生育意愿无显著关联，扬州市生育率自2017年持续下降；同等收入下，独生子女与非独生子女结合家庭生育意愿无显著差异；在扬州这样的二三线城市，收入与生育决策的关系为何不显著？其背后的关键调节变量是什么？后续研究发现教育费用、祖辈育儿经济支持及政策了解度对生育决策有显著调节效应。据此，研究提出重塑生育文化、优化教育托育支持、完善生育保障与公共服务等建议，为二三线城市构建生育友好型社会、促进人口均衡发展提供实证依据与政策参考。

Abstract: To address the challenge of persistently low fertility rates in China and enhance the precision of fertility support policies, this study focuses on women aged 20~40 in urban areas of Yangzhou. Drawing on three core theories including Becker’s family economics theory, and using 174 valid questionnaires, it explores the heterogeneous relationship between income and fertility decisions as well as the influencing factors. The results show that there is no significant correlation between income and fertility intention, and Yangzhou’s fertility rate has been declining continuously since 2017; under the same income level, there is no significant difference in fertility intention between families formed by only children and those formed by non-only children. For second- and third-tier cities like Yangzhou, two key questions arise: why is the relationship between income and fertility decisions not significant? And what are the key moderating variables behind this phenomenon? Subsequent findings reveal that education costs, financial support from grandparents for childcare, and the level of understanding of relevant policies exert significant moderating effects on fertility decisions. Based on these results, the study puts forward suggestions such as reshaping fertility culture, optimizing education and childcare support, and improving fertility security and public services. It provides empirical evidence and policy references for second- and third-tier cities to build child-friendly societies and promote balanced population development.