新发展格局下中国企业内外贸一体化经营机制与实现路径

Integration Mechanism and Realisation Path of Domestic and Foreign Trade Integration of Chinese Enterprises under the New Development Patterns

摘要: 作为“双循环”新发展格局的关键环节与重要组成部分，内外贸一体化是中国企业转变“大进大出”和“以进养出”的传统观念，追求进出口可持续优质发展的必由之路。文章从全国统一大市场建设角度出发，考察出口份额对企业国内销售增长的影响及其动态效应。在此基础上，进一步检验省际贸易壁垒和关税壁垒路径的机制渠道。文章将两国市场需求纳入扩展后的Melitz (2003)模型中，论证了短期国内市场需求变化产生的进出口替代效应。在理论分析基础上，利用工企–海关匹配数据进行实证研究，结果显示：(1) 出口份额提升会引致当期企业国内销售额先增后减，呈倒“U”型曲线关系；(2) 企业出口份额存在最优均衡点，企业在面临出口还是内销的决策时需要考虑利润最大化约束条件下的“出口临界门槛”；(3) 出口份额提升对于低利润率企业与加工贸易企业的影响较大。本文研究结论对于促进“双循环”均衡发展，建设全国统一大市场具有一定的指导与借鉴意义。

Abstract: As a key link and an important part of the new development pattern of “double-cycle”, the integration of domestic and foreign trade is an inevitable way for Chinese enterprises to change the traditional concepts to pursue the sustainable and high-quality development of import and export. The integration of domestic and foreign trade is a necessary way for Chinese enterprises to transform the traditional concepts of “big import, big export” and “import feeds export”, and to pursue the sustainable development of import and export with high quality. This paper examines the impact of export share on domestic sales growth and its dynamic effect from the perspective of the construction of a unified national market. On this basis, it further tests the mechanism channels of inter-provincial trade barriers and tariff barriers. This paper incorporates the market demand of the two countries into the extended Melitz model and argues for the import and export substitution effects arising from short-term domestic market demand changes. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the empirical study is carried out by using the matching data of industrial enterprises and customs, and the results show that: (1) the increase of export share will lead to the increase and then decrease of domestic sales of enterprises in the current period, which is an inverted “U” curve; (2) there is an optimal equilibrium point of the export share of the enterprise, and the enterprise needs to consider the decision of whether to export or to sell domestically. Profit maximisation constraints under the “export critical threshold”; (3) export share of low profit rate enterprises and processing trade enterprises have a greater impact. The conclusions of this paper have certain guidance and reference significance for promoting the balanced development of the “double cycle” and building a unified national market.