气象要素影响下灾害应急后勤服务保障能力提升路径研究——以北京市气象局机关服务中心为例

Research on the Path to Enhance Disaster Emergency Logistics Service Support Capacity under the Influence of Meteorological Elements—A Case Study of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s Administrative Service Center

摘要: 在全球气候变化加剧背景下，气象要素对灾害应急后勤保障能力的影响日益凸显。本文以北京市气象局机关服务中心为研究对象，通过案例分析、实地调研等方法，系统探讨温度、湿度、降水、风速等气象要素对应急指挥、物资储运、设备运行等关键环节的影响机制。基于组织韧性理论，构建“技术创新–管理优化–智慧决策”三维提升路径，并结合“23·7”京津冀暴雨事件验证路径有效性。研究表明，该路径可显著提升后勤保障时效性与可靠性，为同类机构灾害应急体系建设提供理论支撑与实践范式。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change, the impact of meteorological elements on the capacity of disaster emergency logistics support is becoming increasingly prominent. This paper takes the Administrative Service Center of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau as the research object and, through case analysis and on-site investigation, systematically explores the influence mechanisms of meteorological elements such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed on key links such as emergency command, material storage and transportation, and equipment operation. Based on the theory of organizational resilience, a three-dimensional improvement path of “technological innovation - management optimization - intelligent decision-making” is constructed, and the effectiveness of the path is verified through the “23·7” heavy rain event in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The research shows that this path can significantly enhance the timeliness and reliability of logistics support, providing theoretical support and practical models for the construction of disaster emergency systems in similar institutions.