浙江老年友好型城市指标体系构建和建设路径研究

Research on the Development of an Index System and Implementation Pathways for Age-Friendly Cities in Zhejiang Province

摘要: 在我国人口老龄化持续深化与科技创新快速发展的背景下，推进老年友好型城市建设是应对人口结构转型、提升民生福祉的关键举措。浙江省作为东部沿海发达地区，其城市化与老龄化进程具有典型性，为研究提供了重要样本。针对当前本土化研究不足、指标体系缺乏动态权重与合理性检验、以及对数字化特征考量有限等问题，本研究基于WHO老年友好城市原则，结合浙江实际，构建了涵盖智慧基础设施、社会参与、健康支持、生活环境、制度保障和安全保障六个维度的评价体系，包含43项经信效度检验的三级指标。采用熵权法动态赋权发现，社会参与权重最高，生活环境最低；制度保障相关指标尤为关键。通过聚类分析将浙江11市划分为三类，并提出差异化建议；偏最小二乘路径模型进一步揭示智慧基础设施对制度保障和安全保障存在显著正向影响，制度保障具有中介杠杆效应，健康支持需要社会–环境协同作用。本研究构建了动态化、可操作的指标体系，同时引入定性案例分析增强结论解释力，对城市适老化建设具有实践参考价值。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s deepening population aging and rapid technological innovation, advancing the development of age-friendly cities is a crucial measure to address demographic transitions and enhance public welfare. As a developed coastal region in eastern China, Zhejiang Province offers a representative case study for research due to its typical urbanization and aging processes. Addressing current limitations such as insufficient localized research, indicator systems lacking dynamic weighting and validity testing, and limited consideration of digital characteristics, this study constructs an evaluation framework based on WHO Age-Friendly Cities principles and Zhejiang’s specific context. The framework encompasses six dimensions—smart infrastructure, social participation, health support, living environment, institutional safeguards, and safety assurance—comprising 43 third-level indicators validated for reliability and validity. Dynamic weighting via the entropy weight method revealed that social participation carries the highest weight, while living environment has the lowest; indicators related to institutional safeguards are particularly critical. Cluster analysis grouped Zhejiang’s 11 cities into three categories, with tailored recommendations proposed. Partial Least Squares Path Analysis further revealed that smart infrastructure significantly positively influences institutional safeguards and safety assurance, with institutional safeguards acting as a mediating lever effect. Health support requires synergistic social-environmental actions. This study establishes a dynamic, actionable indicator system while incorporating qualitative case analysis to enhance interpretive power, offering practical reference value for urban age-friendly development.