基于Meta分析的中国人群乙肝疫苗抗体阳性率推断研究

Inference of Hepatitis B Vaccine Antibody Seropositivity Rate in the Chinese Population Based on Meta-Analysis

摘要: 抗-HBs阳性率是评估乙肝疫苗免疫效果的关键指标，然而目前相关数据存在两个突出问题：一是局部性调查难以全面反映全国层面的实际水平；二是样本量有限或在低流行地区仍采用传统统计方法，导致估计误差较大，且未能充分利用历史数据，影响了结果的可靠性。为此，本研究采用Meta分析方法，旨在实现对全国人群抗-HBs阳性率的稳健统计推断，为优化乙肝疫苗免疫策略提供可靠依据。通过Meta分析整合13项研究(共计22,312人)发现，中国15~59岁人群抗-HBs阳性率为55.60% (95%CI: 49.44%~61.69%)。敏感性分析显示结果波动范围在±2%以内，发表偏倚检验结果无统计学意义(P = 0.418)，进一步证实了研究结果的稳健性。本研究为乙肝免疫策略的优化提供了重要科学依据。基于Meta分析对全国范围抗-HBs阳性率进行的稳健推断，能够更准确地反映普通人群的乙肝疫苗免疫保护水平，有助于公共卫生决策者制定针对性接种计划、合理配置资源，并加强对重点人群的干预措施。

Abstract: The anti-HBs seropositivity rate is a key indicator for evaluating the immunization effectiveness of the hepatitis B vaccine. However, current data face two prominent issues: firstly, localized surveys struggle to comprehensively reflect the actual level at the national scale; secondly, studies with limited sample sizes or those conducted in low-prevalence areas often still employ traditional statistical methods. This leads to significant estimation errors and a failure to fully utilize historical data, thereby compromising the reliability of the results. To address this, this study employs a Meta-analysis approach, aiming to achieve robust statistical inference of the anti-HBs seropositivity rate for the national population, thereby providing a reliable basis for optimizing hepatitis B vaccine immunization strategies. By integrating 13 studies (total sample size n = 22,312) via Meta-analysis, the anti-HBs seropositivity rate among the Chinese population aged 15~59 years was found to be 55.60% (95% CI: 49.44%~61.69%). Sensitivity analysis showed that the result fluctuation remained within ±2%, and the publication bias test was not statistically significant (P = 0.418), further confirming the robustness of the findings. This study provides important scientific evidence for the optimization of hepatitis B immunization strategies. The robust inference of the nationwide anti-HBs seropositivity rate based on meta-analysis can more accurately reflect the level of hepatitis B vaccine-induced immune protection in the general population. This aids public health decision-makers in formulating targeted vaccination plans, rationally allocating resources, and strengthening intervention measures for key populations.