ECMWF细网格2 m气温和10 m风场在新疆地区的误差分析

Error Analysis of ECMWF Fine Grid Model for 2 m Temperature and 10 m Wind Speed in Xinjiang Region

摘要: 利用2015~2019年新疆地区各机场实况报文中的气温和风速数据以及对应时次的EC细网格2 m气温、10 m风速，进行比对分析。结果表明：(1) EC细网格预报的2 m气温和10 m风速系统性偏低，相对来说，EC细网格对2 m气温的预报优于10 m风速；(2) EC细网格2 m气温、10 m风速的误差具有明显的日变化特征，表现为白天误差小于夜间；(3) 2 m气温在12月~2月偏高，3月~11月偏低，10 m风速春夏季的偏差大于秋冬季；(4) EC细网格10 m风场在新疆地区大风天气中的漏报率较高，其对伊宁、库车、喀什、莎车4机场大风天气的预报中表现相对较好，预报准确率为100%。

Abstract: The 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed from ECMWF are evaluated by comparing with observational data of 21 airports in Xinjiang region. The results show that: (1) The 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed predicted by ECMWF are both lower than the measured factors, and the forecast of 2 m temperature is better than 10 m wind speed. (2) The errors of 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed of ECMWF have obvious diurnal variation characteristics, that is, they are smaller in the day than at night. (3) The temperature by ECMWF is higher from December to February and lower from March to November, and the deviation of 10 m wind speed in spring and summer is greater than that in autumn and winter. (4) The omission rate of the 10 m wind speed forecast by EC fine grid is relatively high in strong wind weather in Xinjiang, and it performs relatively well in the forecast of strong wind weather in Yining, Kuche, Kashgar, and Shache airports, with a forecast accuracy of 100%.