一种输电线路雷击概率预测方法及其在输电系统短期可靠性评估中的应用

A Transmission Line Lightning Strike Probability Prediction Method and Its Application to Transmission System Short-Term Reliability Evaluation

摘要: 输电线路长期暴露在大气环境之中，雷电天气下输电线路易发生雷击跳闸事件，严重影响输电系统可靠性，有必要针对雷电天气下的输电网可靠性进行评估。本文研究了输电线路在雷电天气下的故障概率模型，并用于在预报天气状况下的输电网可靠性预测(评估)。首先根据历史雷电记录建立雷击故障概率模型，然后根据此概率模型对未来雷电天气下的输电线路雷击故障概率进行计算，并进而计算输电网可靠性指标。通过IEEE RTS-79测试系统验证了所提方法的有效性，算例结果表明，雷电天气对输电线路和系统可靠性有较大的影响。该模型可以指导雷电天气下电网短期运行和在线调度决策。

Abstract: The transmission lines are exposed to the atmospheric environment and will be affected by adverse weather such as lightning storm, so that it will affect the reliability of transmission system. This paper studies the fault probability model of transmission line during the lightning storm, and evaluates the short-term reliability of transmission system in the forecasting weather condition. Firstly, we build the lightning strike fault probability model of the transmission line based on historical lightning record information, then calculate the lightning strike probability under the forecasting weather conditions, and furthermore evaluate the reliability index of transmission system. We utilize IEEE RTS-79 system to verify the validity of the proposed model and the results show that lightning has great negative influence on the transmission lines and the reliability of transmission system. The reliability evaluation model proposed in this paper can guide the short-term operation and online scheduling for transmission system operators.