中断风险下基于双源采购的供应链协调与优化

Supply Chain Coordination and Optimization Based on Dual-Sourcing under Disruption Risk

摘要: 在全球供应链高度一体化与贸易环境不确定性持续上升的背景下，供应链系统面临频繁中断与需求波动的双重挑战。本文以需求不确定与供应商中断风险下的双源采购二级供应链为研究对象，提出了结合期权契约与营业中断保险的风险管理策略，构建了供应链利润模型并分析了供应链成员在不同中断情境下的最优采购与保险决策。研究表明，在一定条件下，营业中断保险能够弥补期权契约在突发事件中的不足，从而优化供应链系统的整体效益。通过数值算例验证了模型的合理性，并为企业制定采购与风险应对策略提供了决策建议。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of highly integrated global supply chains and the continuous rise in trade environment uncertainty, supply chain systems are confronted with dual challenges of frequent disruptions and demand fluctuations. This paper takes a two-source procurement two-level supply chain under demand uncertainty and supplier disruption risk as the research object, proposes a risk management strategy combining option contracts and business interruption insurance, constructs a supply chain profit model, and analyzes the optimal procurement and insurance decisions of supply chain members under different disruption scenarios. The research shows that, under certain conditions, business interruption insurance can make up for the deficiencies of option contracts in emergencies, thereby optimizing the overall benefits of the supply chain system. The rationality of the model is verified through numerical examples, and decision-making suggestions for enterprises to formulate procurement and risk response strategies are provided.