六枝水稻产量与秋风关系的研究

Study on the Relationship between Grain Yield and Autumn Wind in Liuzhi

摘要: 利用贵州省六枝特区1990~2023年逐日气温和水稻产量数据，分析了该地区水稻产量波动特征、秋风天气的强度变化及其对水稻产量的影响。结果表明：六枝水稻单产在1996~2017年呈现显著增长趋势，但2018年后转为明显下降；相对气象产量变幅介于36%至−40%之间，其中41%的年份为气象减产年；秋风发生频率高达67.6%，水稻产量与秋风强度指数呈显著负相关关系。表明在气候变化与技术进步并行的背景下，秋风是制约六枝水稻产量稳定的关键风险因子。

Abstract: Using daily temperature and grain yield data from 1990 to 2023 in Liuzhi Special Zone, Guizhou Province, this study analyzed the fluctuaction charateristics of grain yield, the intensity changes of Autumn wind weather, and their impact on grain yield in the region. The results showed that the per unit area of the grain showed a significant increase trend from 1996 to 2017 in Liuzhi, but turned into a significant decrease after 2018; The relative meteorological yield ranges from 36% to −40%, with 41% of years being meteorological reduction years; The frequency of Autumn wind occurrence is as high as 67.6%, and there is a significant negative correlation between grain yield and Autumn wind intensity index. Under the background of climate change and technological progress, Autumn wind is a key risk factor which restricting the stable yield of grain yield in Liuzhi.