城市交通流系统复杂性成因研究

Causes on Complexity of Urban Traffic Flow Systems

摘要: 城市交通流系统是由人、车、路三要素构成的动态、开放的复杂巨系统，关于城市交通流系统复杂性的研究是当前城市交通和复杂性科学两大领域共同关注的前沿课题。在分析城市交通拥堵现状及未来交通需求发展的基础上，本文系统的从个体出行者、城市路网、多种要素间作用机理和外部环境四个方面研究了城市交通流系统复杂性的主要成因。研究表明，造成城市交通流系统复杂性的根源在于构成要素数量巨大且相互之间作用机理复杂。本文同时指出针对城市交通流系统复杂性宜采用的研究方法以及未来可能的研究方向。

Abstract: An urban traffic flow system is a dynamic and open complex giant system, which is composed of three essential factors, namely people, vehicles and roads. Research works regarding complexity of urban traffic flow systems are the current common frontiers of both urban traffic and complexity science. On the basis of analysis of the present situation about traffic congestion and trends about the traffic demand, this study systemically discusses the main causes of the complexity of urban traffic flow systems, including individual travelers, urban road networks, action mechanisms among diverse elements and the external environment. It is expounded that the root causes of complexity of urban traffic flow systems are both gigantic amounts of elements and the complexity of action mechanisms among vast elements. In the meantime, the study makes mention of research methods and future directions regarding complexity of urban traffic flow systems.