成人高等教育规模对区域经济的影响及异质性

The Impact and Heterogeneity of Adult Higher Education Scale on Regional Economy

摘要: 文章基于2013~2023年中国31个省份面板数据，采用双固定效应模型，实证探究成人高等教育规模对区域经济增长的影响及异质性。研究发现，成人高等教育规模扩大显著促进区域实际GDP增长，且通过稳健性检验。该效应存在产业与空间异质性，主要推动第一、三产业发展，对第二产业直接影响不显著；分位数回归显示，成人高等教育的经济效应呈“倒U型”非线性特征；在高学历人口占比低的地区，“雪中送炭”效应更明显。据此，文章提出差异化区域支持、对接产业需求、构建与普通教育互补体系等政策建议，助力区域协调发展与经济现代化建设。

Abstract: Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China spanning 2013 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to empirically investigate the impact of adult higher education scale on regional economic growth and its heterogeneity. The findings indicate that the expansion of adult higher education significantly promotes regional real GDP growth, a result validated through robustness checks. The effects exhibit industrial and spatial heterogeneity, primarily driving the development of the primary and tertiary sectors, while demonstrating no significant direct impact on the secondary industry. Quantile regression results reveal an “inverted U-shaped” non-linear characteristic of adult higher education’s economic effects. Furthermore, the “timely support” effect is more pronounced in regions with a lower proportion of highly educated individuals. Accordingly, this paper proposes policy recommendations such as implementing differentiated regional support strategies, aligning educational supply with industrial demands, and constructing a complementary system alongside general education, with the aim of facilitating coordinated regional development and advancing economic modernization.