冬季城市热岛效应的时空演变与驱动机制研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Winter

摘要: 在全球气候变化与快速城市化背景下，城市热岛效应已成为严峻的环境问题。现有研究多集中于春、夏、秋季，对冬季热岛效应的时空特征、驱动机制及其对大规模人为干预的响应认知不足。本研究以典型海滨城市青岛为例，基于2013~2024年冬季Landsat遥感影像，反演地表温度，计算城市热岛强度(UHII)，并结合归一化植被指数(NDVI)、归一化建筑指数(NDBI)、归一化裸土指数(NDBaI)和改进的归一化差异水体指数(MNDWI)，系统分析了快速城市化及海绵城市建设背景下冬季热岛效应的时空演变规律及其驱动因素。结果表明：(1) 2013~2024年间，研究区内不透水面持续扩张，自然地表萎缩，土地利用变化显著；(2) 冬季城市热岛强度空间分异明显，其等级分布格局由2013年以4级UHII为主的“单峰”分布，转变为2020年以3级与5级为主的“双峰”结构，并持续至2024年，反映了冬季热环境空间异质性的加剧；(3) 线性回归分析表明，NDBI和NDBaI与UHII呈稳定正相关。MNDWI呈负相关，而植被与UHII呈正相关，这与植被夏季的降温效应相反，揭示了冬季植被生理活动休眠、反照率较低可能导致的增温作用。本研究强调了冬季城市热岛效应的独特性与复杂性，有助于指导对城市环境治理中的科学决策具有一定的指导作用。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the urban heat island effect has emerged as a severe environmental issue. Existing research predominantly focuses on spring, summer, and autumn, with insufficient understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics, driving mechanisms, and responses to large-scale human interventions of winter heat islands. Taking the coastal city of Qingdao as a case study, this research utilizes winter Landsat remote sensing imagery from 2013 to 2024 to derive surface temperatures and calculate the Urban Heat Island Intensity (UHII). By integrating the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Building Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Bare Land Index (NDBaI), and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of winter heat island effects under rapid urbanization and sponge city construction. Results indicate: (1) From 2013 to 2024, impervious surfaces continuously expanded while natural surfaces shrank, reflecting significant land use changes in the study area; (2) Winter urban heat island intensity exhibited pronounced spatial differentiation. Its hierarchical distribution pattern shifted from a “single-peak” distribution dominated by Level 4 UHII in 2013 to a “double-peak” structure characterized by Levels 3 and 5 in 2020, persisting through 2024. This reflects intensified spatial heterogeneity in the winter thermal environment. (3) Linear regression analysis revealed stable positive correlations between NDBI and NDBaI with UHII, MNDWI exhibits a negative correlation, while vegetation shows a positive correlation with UHII. This contrasts with vegetation’s cooling effect in summer, revealing that winter vegetation’s physiological dormancy and lower albedo may contribute to warming. This study highlights the distinctiveness and complexity of the urban heat island effect during winter, thereby providing valuable guidance for scientific decision-making in urban environmental governance.