基于OECD国家经验的社会保障体系建设研究

Research on the Construction of Social Security Systems Based on the Experience of OECD Countries

摘要: 在人口老龄化趋势不断加剧的背景下，为优化我国社会保障体系提供国际经验借鉴，本文基于2010~2022年38个OECD国家的面板数据，运用固定效应模型，实证检验了社会保障水平、老龄化程度、人均GDP等因素对失业率的影响，以探究社会保障水平对就业市场的作用机制。结果显示：社会保障水平和人均预期寿命对失业率具有显著正向影响；而老龄化程度与人均GDP则与失业率呈显著负相关。这表明，过高的社会保障支出可能对就业产生抑制效应。鉴于此，我国可在2035年前适度提高社会保障水平，之后则需控制其相对增速，同时大力发展经济以促进就业，从而构建保障适度、可持续发展的社会保障体系。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of an increasingly pronounced trend towards population ageing, this paper draws upon international experience to inform the optimisation of China’s social security system. Utilising panel data from 38 OECD countries spanning 2010~2022 and employing a fixed-effects model, it empirically examines the impact of factors including social security levels, aging intensity, and per capita GDP on unemployment rates. The objective is to explore the operational mechanisms through which social security levels influence the labour market. The findings reveal that social security levels and life expectancy per capita exert a significant positive influence on unemployment rates, whereas ageing levels and GDP per capita exhibit a significant negative correlation with unemployment. This indicates that excessively high social security expenditure may exert a suppressing effect on employment. In light of this, China could moderately enhance its social security levels before 2035, subsequently controlling their relative growth rate while vigorously developing the economy to promote employment. This approach would facilitate the establishment of a social security system characterised by appropriate safeguards and sustainable development.