长江干流径流变异特性研究

The Variation of Runoff in the Yangtze River

摘要: 在水文领域，水文资料要求成因一致。近年来，长江流域气候变化，加之人类活动的干扰逐渐加剧，破坏了序列一致性，因此有必要对长江流域序列的变异情况进行检测识别。本文采用常见的Mann-Kendall (M-K)法和滑动F法，对长江干流主要控制站点屏山、高场、宜昌、三峡、汉口、大通的年径流系列进行变异识别，研究长江干流径流变异特性；同时综合这两种变异检测方法的结果，给出了系列变异区间。总体来看，长江干流存在两个相对集中的变异区间，即1970~1980与1993~2003；其中对于变异区间1970~1980年，各站变异响应时间存在空间分布规律，从长江上游到下游变异时间滞后；而变异区间1993~2003，各站变异响应时间的空间分布规律不明显。

Abstract: In the field of hydrology, the hydrological data are required to have the same physical cause. In recent years, the climate change and the increasing interference of human activities in the Yangtze River basin, gradually undermine the consistency of series. Therefore it is essential to detect the variation of hydrological series. In this paper, two common methods, Mann-Kendall (M-K) and slide F test, are applied to recognize the variation of runoff in the main control hydrologic stations in the Yangtze River, including the stations of Pingshan, Yichang, Three Gorges, Hankou, and Datong, which is aimed at studying the variation of runoff in the main stream of Yangtze River. At the same time, this paper gives the range of runoff change-point by combining the results of two methods. Generally speaking, in the mainstream of the Yangtze River, two concentrated ranges of change-points exist, in which one is from 1970 to 1980, while the other is from 1993 to 2003. Especially in the former range, 1970-1980, the response time of variation in each station presents the spatial distribution and there is a time lag from the upstream to downstream in the mainstream of Yangtze River. While in the latter range, 1993-2003, it does not have the significant spatial distribution.