基于文本分析和fsQCA方法的倡议沿线省份出口效率的政策工具组合研究

Research on the Policy Tool Combinations for Export Efficiency of Provinces along the Initiative Based on Text Analysis and fsQCA Method

摘要: 倡议实践进入提质增效的关键阶段，出口效率直接反映了地方参与全球价值链的深度与效能，是评估倡议地方实践经济成效的重要维度。本文以倡议沿线18个重点省份为研究对象，系统梳理了2014~2022年间发布的111份相关政策文本。运用内容分析法对政策条款进行人工编码与归类，将其归纳为供给型、需求型和环境型三大类共7项政策子工具，同时，构建了投入–产出评价指标体系，运用超效率SBM模型测算了2015~2023年各省份的出口效率，并以该时段内的效率均值作为结果变量。最后，采用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)，识别出驱动高出口效率的多元等效路径。研究表明，在政策工具使用中，供给型工具占据主要地位，其中“基础设施”与“科技信息支持”是两大核心支柱；沿线省份出口效率在整体上实现了显著跃升，但依然存在结构和区域差异化；基于fsQCA组态分析结果，可得出6条高效率出口的组合路径，并总结归纳得出四种组合模式。

Abstract: The initiative practice has entered a crucial stage of improving quality and efficiency. The export efficiency directly reflects the depth and effectiveness of local participation in the global value chain and is an important dimension for evaluating the economic effectiveness of the local practice of the initiative. This paper takes 18 key provinces along the initiative as the research objects and systematically reviews 111 policy documents released between 2014 and 2022. The policy provisions are manually coded and classified using content analysis, and they are summarized into three major categories of supply-oriented, demand-oriented, and environmental-oriented, totaling 7 policy sub-tools. At the same time, an input-output evaluation index system is constructed, and the export efficiency of each province from 2015 to 2023 is calculated using the super-efficiency SBM model, with the average efficiency during this period serving as the outcome variable. Finally, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method (fsQCA) is adopted to identify the multiple equivalent paths driving high export efficiency. The research shows that in the use of policy tools, supply-oriented tools occupy a dominant position, among which “infrastructure” and “technology and information support” are the two core pillars; the export efficiency of provinces along the initiative has achieved a significant leap overall, but there are still structural and regional differences; based on the fsQCA configuration analysis results, six combinations of high-efficiency export paths can be identified, and four combination patterns can be summarized and concluded.