中国各省居民食品消费的环境效应及影响因素分析

Environmental Effects and Influencing Factors of Residents’ Food Consumption in China’s Provinces

摘要: 随着中国快速的城市化和经济发展，居民膳食结构经历了显著变化，这对公众健康和环境产生了深远影响。本研究通过多区域、跨时段的比较研究方法，探讨了中国不同省份之间膳食模式的差异及其对环境的双重影响。研究表明，中国各省居民的膳食结构在时间和空间上存在显著差异，沿海省份特有的高碳足迹食物消费模式正逐渐向内陆地区扩散，南方地区的高碳排放食物的消费量明显高于北方地区。2023年，全国人均食品消费碳足迹最高的为西藏自治区(1235.27 kg/人)，人均食品消费水足迹最高的为西藏自治区(978.75 kg/人)，人均食品消费生态足迹最高的省份为海南省(0.77 hm²/人/年)。从1990年至2023年，中国居民食物消费的碳排放总量从26.5千万吨增至6.62千万吨，其中动物性食品的碳排放量占比从43.8%升至78.7%。同期，水足迹总量从4.87万吨增至10.38万吨，动物性食品的水足迹占比从21.4%升至64.4%。生态足迹方面，2015年至2023年间，人均食品生态足迹从0.39 hm²/人/年增至0.53 hm²/人/年，动物性食品对生态足迹的贡献最大，尤其是猪肉和水产品。研究还发现，长江三角洲和珠江三角洲经济带省份因其庞大的食物消费量和较高的生产活动强度，成为食物消费总碳排放高型区域。利用城市指标进行皮尔诺分析得出各变量的相关性，反映了各省市食品消费特征与经济发展水平、饮食习惯和自然资源条件之间的相关性。为后续引导居民改善食物消费方式，改进居民膳食结构提出建议。未来应通过科学合理的政策引导和技术创新，实现膳食结构的优化，促进环境的可持续发展和居民健康水平的提升。

Abstract: With the rapid urbanization and economic development of China, residents’ dietary structures have undergone significant changes, exerting profound impacts on both public health and the environment. This study adopts a multi-regional and intertemporal comparative research framework to examine differences in dietary patterns across Chinese provinces and their dual environmental effects. The results indicate pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in provincial dietary structures. High-carbon footprint food consumption patterns characteristics of coastal provinces have gradually diffused toward inland regions, while the consumption of high-carbon-emission foods in southern China is significantly higher than that in northern China. In 2023, the highest per capita food-related carbon footprint was the Xi Zang Autonomous Region (1,235.27 kg per capita), the highest per capita food-related water footprint was also observed in the Xi Zang Autonomous Region (978.75 kg per capita), and the highest per capita food-related ecological footprint was recorded in Hainan Province (0.77 hm² per capita per year). From 1990 to 2023, total carbon emissions from food consumption by Chinese residents increased from 26.5 million tons to 66.2 million tons, with the share of animal-based foods rising from 43.8% to 78.7%. Over the same period, the total water footprint increased from 4.87 million tons to 10.38 million tons, while the contribution of animal-based foods expanded from 21.4% to 64.4%. In terms of ecological footprint, the per capita food-related ecological footprint increased from 0.39 hm² per capita per year in 2015 to 0.53 hm² per capita per year in 2023. Animal-based foods contributed the most to the ecological footprint, particularly pork and aquatic products. The study further reveals that provinces within the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta economic belts constitute high-total food-related carbon emission regions due to their large-scale food consumption and high intensity of production activities. Pearson correlation analysis based on urban indicators was employed to examine the relationships among variables, highlighting the associations between provincial food consumption characteristics and levels of economic development, dietary habits, and natural resource endowments. Based on these findings, policy implications are proposed to guide residents toward more sustainable food consumption behaviors and improved dietary structures. In the future, scientifically sound policy interventions and technological innovations should be implemented to optimize dietary patterns, promote environmental sustainability, and enhance public health outcomes.