中国对欧钢铁出口隐含碳排放的结构演化、驱动机制及钢铁电商的潜在作用

Structural Evolution, Driving Mechanism and Potential Role of Steel E-Commerce of Embodied Carbon Emissions in China’s Steel Exports to Europe

摘要: 在欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)逐步实施背景下，中国钢铁产品对欧出口正面临日益严格的碳约束。本文基于2005~2024年中国对欧盟钢铁产品出口数据及欧盟CBAM公布的产品碳排放默认值，测算中国对欧钢铁出口隐含碳排放水平及加权碳强度，并利用赫芬达尔–赫希曼指数(HHI)刻画出口结构集中度的演变，进一步采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)将隐含碳变化分解为规模效应与结构效应。研究发现，中国对欧钢铁出口结构总体由“高碳集中”向“多元低碳化”方向演进，高碳产品占比持续下降、中低碳产品比重稳步上升；出口隐含碳排放的下降主要由规模效应主导，结构效应发挥协同作用，体现出钢铁出口由数量扩张向质量提升转型的特征。在此基础上，本文从制度视角讨论了钢铁电商对出口结构调整的影响，并指出平台化交易模式在一定程度上可为低碳产品改善市场可达性提供条件。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the gradual implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), China’s steel product exports to the EU are confronting increasingly stringent carbon constraints. Based on the data of China’s steel product exports to the EU from 2005 to 2024 and the default carbon emission values of products announced by the EU CBAM, this paper measures the level of embodied carbon emissions and weighted carbon intensity of China’s steel exports to the EU. Meanwhile, it depicts the evolution of export structure concentration by applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). Furthermore, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is adopted to decompose the changes in embodied carbon emissions into scale effect and structure effect. The research findings indicate that the overall structure of China’s steel exports to the EU has evolved from a “high-carbon concentration” pattern to a direction of “diversification and low-carbonization”, characterized by a continuous decline in the proportion of high-carbon products and a steady rise in the share of medium-and-low-carbon products. The reduction in embodied carbon emissions from exports is mainly driven by the scale effect, with the structure effect playing a synergistic role, which reflects the transformation of steel exports from quantity expansion to quality improvement. On this basis, this paper discusses the impact of steel e-commerce on the adjustment of export structure from an institutional perspective, and points out that the platform-based transaction model can, to a certain extent, provide conditions for low-carbon products to improve market accessibility.