RCEP对中国–越南纺织品贸易链的深化效应研究

Research on the Deepening Effect of RCEP on the China-Vietnam Textile Trade Chain

摘要: 2022年1月1日生效的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)为亚太区域价值链深化注入了新动能。基于2010~2023年UN Comtrade贸易数据，我们通过构建拓展贸易引力模型，实证检验RCEP对两国贸易链的“深化效应”。研究发现，RCEP的实施显著促进了中国对越南纺织品出口总量的增长，且对中间品的促进作用远大于原料和制成品，推动贸易链向“中国供料–越南加工”的“中间品驱动”结构转型。贸易潜力测算显示，中越纺织品贸易属于潜力开拓型。建议双方政府加强政策协调与企业引导，共同构建绿色、可持续的纺织品贸易合作机制。本文通过构建细分产品的拓展贸易引力模型，为理解区域贸易协定对产业内价值链的精细深化机制提供了新的经验证据。

Abstract: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which came into effect on January 1, 2022, has injected new momentum into the reconstruction of the Asia-Pacific regional value chain. Based on UN Comtrade trade data from 2010 to 2023, we constructed an expanded trade gravity model to empirically tested the “restructuring effect” of RCEP on the trade chain between the two countries. The study found that the implementation of RCEP has significantly promoted the growth of China’s total textile exports to Vietnam, and its promotion effect on intermediate products is much greater than raw materials and finished products, promoting the transformation of the trade chain into an “intermediate product-driven” structure of “China supplies-Vietnam processes”. Trade potential calculations show that China-Vietnam textile trade is of potential development type. It is recommended that the two governments strengthen policy coordination and business guidance to jointly build a green and sustainable textile trade cooperation mechanism. This article provides new empirical evidence for understanding the refined reconstruction mechanism of regional trade agreements on intra-industry value chains by constructing an expanded trade gravity model for subdivided products.