基于长期监测数据的农田地膜残留时空分布与政策成效评估

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Agricultural Plastic Film Residues and Policy Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Long-Term Monitoring Data

摘要: 伴随农用地膜大量使用带来的累积性污染问题越来越显露，长期残留监测跟政策干预成效评估变成农业环境治理的关键环节。本研究依据2019~2023年全国多源监测数据，融合时空分析与政策演进途径，建立包含残留量、回收率及制度响应的多维评估框架，显示地膜污染的空间异质性与时间动态特征；借助识别政策节点以及滞后效应，发现重点治理区残留降幅显著但边际效应递减，监测网络建设迟滞致使数据失真并延缓污染拐点出现；更深一步分析表明，区域执行差异和工具组合僵化制约治理效能，而热点区域集中贡献高负荷残留，急切需要改良采样精度以及政策协同机制。据此健全监测体系时效性、强化财政配套与制度创新联动，是实现地膜污染准确管控的重点途径。

Abstract: With the increasingly prominent cumulative pollution problems caused by the massive use of agricultural plastic film, long-term residue monitoring and policy intervention effectiveness evaluation have become key components of agricultural environmental governance. Based on national multi-source monitoring data from 2019 to 2023, this study integrates spatio-temporal analysis with a policy evolution approach to establish a multi-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing residue quantity, recovery rates, and institutional responses. The framework reveals the spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamic characteristics of plastic film pollution. By identifying policy nodes and lag effects, the study finds that while residue reduction is significant in key governance areas, the marginal effect is diminishing. Furthermore, the sluggish construction of monitoring networks has led to data distortion and delayed the emergence of a pollution inflection point. A deeper analysis indicates that regional implementation differences and rigid tool combinations restrict governance efficiency, while hotspots contribute disproportionately to the high residual load. There is an urgent need to improve sampling accuracy and policy coordination mechanisms. Accordingly, enhancing the timeliness of the monitoring system and strengthening the linkage between financial support and institutional innovation are key approaches to achieving accurate control of plastic film pollution.