气候物理风险对商业银行盈利能力的影响研究

The Impact Study of Climate Physical Risk on the Profitability of Commercial Banks

摘要: 本文探究气候物理风险如何影响商业盈利能力。基于2010~2024年中国A股42家上市商业银行的面板数据，本文研究了气候物理风险对银行绩效的影响，以及探究其对银行绩效的影响中的中介效应。研究发现：气候物理风险对商业银行盈利能力有显著抑制作用，通过影响不良贷款率以及资本充足率进一步影响商业银行盈利能力。本文的研究丰富了气候风险与银行盈利关系的相关文献，为商业银行应对气候风险、提升盈利可持续性提供了实证依据。

Abstract: Climate change is increasingly reshaping economic and financial systems through the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This study investigates how climate physical risk affects the profitability of commercial banks. Using panel data from 42 Chinese A-share listed commercial banks over the period 2010~2024, we examine both the direct impact of climate physical risk on bank performance and the underlying transmission mechanisms. The empirical results show that climate physical risk significantly suppresses bank profitability. Further mediation analysis reveals that climate physical risk affects bank profitability indirectly by reducing capital adequacy ratios and weakening liquidity positions. These findings indicate that climate-related shocks not only erode banks’ earnings capacity directly, but also undermine financial resilience through balance-sheet channels. This study contributes to the literature on climate risk and banking by providing direct empirical evidence on the profitability effects of climate physical risk. The results offer important policy implications for commercial banks and regulators in strengthening climate risk management and enhancing the sustainability of bank profitability.