海南省2024年10月底强降水过程预警信息发布时效性分析

Analysis of Timeliness in Early Warning Dissemination for Heavy Rainfall Events in Hainan Province during Late October 2024

摘要: 本文以海南省2024年10月底强降水过程为例，选择手机短信为发布渠道，基于此次过程预警信息发布的数据分析了预警信息传播的时效性，结果表明：此次暴雨过程预警信息发布与强降水区域、气象灾害发生地区的时空分布基本吻合，证明了预警信息发布的有效性。以手机短信为为例，3分钟内完成预警信息传播的占比为22.6%，传播效率并不高。8~9时和16~17时这两个时间段预警信息传播滞后的时间较长，建议调整发布策略，采取即时发布来缩短传播时间。另外，人为影响因素和系统故障也不可忽略。

Abstract: Based on the heavy rainfall episode in Hainan Province during late October 2024, this study selects Short Message Service (SMS) as the dissemination channel. Analyzing data from early warning releases during this event, the research examines the timeliness of warning information propagation. The findings demonstrate that: The spatiotemporal distribution of early warning releases during this heavy rainfall occurrence demonstrated broad alignment with the regions experiencing intense precipitation and meteorological disasters, validating the effectiveness of the warning dissemination system. Taking SMS as an example, warnings delivered within 3 minutes accounted for only 22.6% of the total, indicating suboptimal propagation efficiency. During both the 8:00~9:00 and 16:00~17:00 periods, warning dissemination was subject to longer delays. It is recommended to adjust the release strategy by implementing real-time dissemination to minimize latency. Additionally, human factors and system failures must be accounted for in the analysis.