基于德尔菲法的家纺电商行业财务风险识别与评估研究

Research on Identification and Assessment of Financial Risks in Home Textile E-Commerce Industry Based on Delphi Method

摘要: 随着电商的深度渗透，家纺行业竞争格局发生深刻变化，一系列复杂独特的财务风险也随之而来。传统的财务风险识别方法往往难以全面捕捉电商模式下快速变化、高度关联的非量化风险因素。为系统、科学地识别家纺电商行业面临的财务风险，本研究引入德尔菲法这一经典的专家共识方法。通过精心设计并实施包含三轮问卷调研的德尔菲流程，本研究凝聚了来自学术界、企业界及咨询机构的专家智慧，最终识别并确立了包含5个一级维度、18个二级关键指标的家纺电商财务风险指标体系。研究结果显示，现金流波动性风险与平台依赖与账款风险被专家一致认为是当前行业最具威胁性的核心风险。基于专家共识结果，本研究进一步构建了家纺电商财务风险识别与评估的整合性框架，并分析其产生原因与风险影响重要程度。

Abstract: With the in-depth penetration of e-commerce, the competitive landscape of the household textile industry has undergone profound changes, accompanied by a series of complex and unique financial risks. Traditional financial risk identification methods often struggle to fully capture the rapidly changing and highly interrelated non-quantitative risk factors under the e-commerce model. To systematically and scientifically identify the financial risks faced by the household textile e-commerce industry, this study introduces the Delphi method, a classic expert consensus approach. Through the careful design and implementation of a Delphi process involving three rounds of questionnaire surveys, this study integrates the wisdom of experts from academia, industry, and consulting institutions, and finally identifies and establishes a financial risk indicator system for household textile e-commerce, which includes 5 primary dimensions and 18 secondary key indicators. The research results show that cash flow volatility risk, as well as platform dependence and account receivable risk, are unanimously recognized by experts as the most threatening core risks in the current industry. Based on the results of expert consensus, this study further constructs an integrated framework for the identification and evaluation of financial risks in household textile e-commerce, and analyzes the causes of these risks and the significance of their impacts.