末次冰盛期以来中国东南沿海地区的气候变化特征及驱动机制
Climate Change Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms in Southeast Coastal China since the Last Glacial Maximum
DOI: 10.12677/ojns.2026.142018, PDF,   
作者: 王晨艺：福建师范大学地理研究所，福建 福州；福建师范大学地理科学学院，福建 福州；福建师范大学湿润亚热带生态–地理过程教育部重点实验室，福建 福州
关键词: 末次冰盛期；中国东南沿海；定量重建；气候变化；驱动机制；Last Glacial Maximum； Southeast Coastal China； Quantitative Reconstruction； Climate Change； Driving Mechanism
摘要: 末次冰盛期作为地球气候系统演化的关键转折点，对中国东南沿海地区的气候格局与生态演变具有重要影响。然而，现有研究在定量解析海洋因素作用、高分辨率气候重建及多驱动机制耦合研究等方面仍存在显著不足。因此，本研究聚焦于中国东南沿海地区，系统整合了包括孢粉、湖泊/泥炭沉积物等18条地质记录，运用Z-scores标准化分析与局部加权回归平滑处理(LOESS)，重建了末次冰盛期以来中国东南沿海地区的气候演变过程，并深入探讨了其驱动机制。主要得出以下结论：(1) 末次冰盛期以来，中国东南沿海地区气候变化显著，经历了多次冷暖、干湿交替阶段，可划分为以下三个阶段：① 25,000~15,000 yr B.P. (末次冰盛期)，中国东南沿海地区以冷干气候为主，且在千年尺度上存在显著振荡；② 15,000~10,000 yr B.P. (末次冰消期)，中国东南沿海地区可能存在两种不同的气候模式；③ 10,000 yr B.P. (全新世以来)，中国东南沿海地区的气候变化存在不稳定性，不同区域间的气候特征存在显著差异。(2) 全新世以来，太阳辐射是驱动中国东南沿海地区气候变化的主要外部因素，太阳辐射通过影响亚洲夏季风的强度，主导区域气候周期性变化。此外，热带海气环流传输和放大了太阳活动的影响，赤道辐合带(ITCZ)的南北移动及厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(ENSO)活动是中国东南沿海地区气候变化的重要因素。本研究通过多源数据耦合与定量分析，完善了末次冰盛期以来中国东南沿海地区气候变化及驱动机制等研究方面的不足，为理解中国东南沿海地区气候系统演变机制及预测未来气候变化提供了关键科学依据。
Abstract: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), as a pivotal turning point in the evolution of the Earth’s climate system, has exerted a profound impact on the climate pattern and ecological evolution in the southeast coastal region of China. However, existing research still exhibits significant deficiencies in quantitatively analyzing the role of marine factors, conducting high-resolution climate reconstruction, and studying the coupling of multiple driving mechanisms. Therefore, this study focuses on the southeast coastal region of China. It systematically integrates 18 geological records, including pollen and lake/peat sediments. By employing Z-scores standardization analysis and Locally Weighted Regression Smoothing (LOESS), we have reconstructed the climate evolution process in the southeast coastal region of China since the LGM and delved deeply into its driving mechanisms. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Since the LGM, the climate in the southeast coastal region of China has undergone remarkable changes, experiencing multiple alternating phases of cold-warm and dry-wet conditions, which can be divided into the following three stages: ① From 25,000 to 15,000 yr B.P. (during the LGM), the southeast coastal region of China was predominantly characterized by a cold and dry climate, with significant oscillations on a millennial scale; ② From 15,000 to 10,000 yr B.P. (during the last deglaciation), two distinct climate patterns may have existed in the southeast coastal region of China; ③ Since 10,000 yr B.P. (since the Holocene), the climate change in the southeast coastal region of China has been unstable, with significant differences in climate characteristics among different regions. (2) Since the Holocene, solar radiation has been the primary external factor driving climate change in the southeast coastal region of China. Solar radiation influences the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon, thereby dominating the periodic changes in regional climate. Additionally, tropical ocean-atmosphere circulation transmits and amplifies the impact of solar activity. The north-south movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activities are important factors influencing climate change in the southeast coastal region of China. Through multi-source data coupling and quantitative analysis, this study has addressed the research gaps in climate change and driving mechanisms in the southeast coastal region of China since the LGM, providing crucial scientific evidence for understanding the evolution mechanism of the climate system and predicting future climate change in this region.
文章引用：王晨艺. 末次冰盛期以来中国东南沿海地区的气候变化特征及驱动机制[J]. 自然科学, 2026, 14(2): 154-168. https://doi.org/10.12677/ojns.2026.142018

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