数字经济对产业结构升级的影响——基于江苏省面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Digital Economy on Industrial Structure Upgrading—An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Jiangsu Province

摘要: 在数字经济蓬勃发展与中国经济由高速增长转向高质量发展的宏观背景下，探究数字经济赋能区域产业转型的内在机理具有重要意义。本文选取2011~2022年江苏省13个地级市的面板数据，构建数字经济发展与产业结构升级的测度指标体系，运用固定效应模型及中介效应模型实证检验了数字经济对产业结构升级的影响效应及其传导机制。研究结果表明：(1) 数字经济发展显著促进了江苏省产业结构升级，在经过滞后一期的稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立；(2) 机制检验发现，消费需求在数字经济与产业结构升级之间发挥了完全中介作用，即数字经济主要通过降低交易成本、释放消费潜力和促进消费结构升级，进而倒逼供给侧改革以推动产业结构跃升；(3) 控制变量方面，地区经济发展水平是产业升级的坚实基础，而现阶段人力资本结构与产业升级需求存在一定错配，呈现负向影响。基于此，本文提出应深化数字消费场景建设、夯实数字基础设施以及优化人才培养结构等政策建议，以充分释放数字红利，推动江苏经济高质量发展。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the booming digital economy and China’s transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, exploring the intrinsic mechanism by which the digital economy empowers regional industrial transformation is of great significance. Based on the panel data of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2022, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for digital economy development and industrial structure upgrading. It empirically tests the impact of the digital economy on industrial structure upgrading and its transmission mechanism using fixed effects models and mediation effect models. The results indicate that: (1) The development of the digital economy significantly promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure in Jiangsu Province, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness checks with lagged variables. (2) The mechanism analysis reveals that consumption demand plays a full mediating role between the digital economy and industrial structure upgrading. This implies that the digital economy drives industrial upgrading primarily by reducing transaction costs, unleashing consumption potential, and promoting consumption structure upgrading, which in turn forces supply-side structural reforms. (3) Regarding control variables, the level of regional economic development serves as a solid foundation for industrial upgrading, while the current structure of human capital shows a mismatch with the needs of industrial upgrading, presenting a negative impact. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations such as deepening the construction of digital consumption scenarios, strengthening digital infrastructure, and optimizing the structure of talent training to fully release digital dividends and promote the high-quality development of Jiangsu’s economy.