成都平原经济区县域人–地–业耦合协调格局演化与约束机制研究

Research and Analysis on the Evolution and Constraint Mechanisms of Population-Land-Industry Coupling Coordination at the County Level in the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone

摘要: 为系统揭示县域“人–地–业”耦合协调发展的演化特征及其约束机制，基于2010~2023年成都平原经济区63县面板数据，构建“人–地–业”耦合协调评价指标体系，采用改进的耦合协调模型与障碍度模型，对县域耦合协调水平及其主要制约因素进行测度与分析。结果表明，研究期内成都平原经济区63县人口、土地和产业发展水平均呈稳定上升态势，“人–地–业”耦合协调水平整体稳步提升，呈现出显著的中心高–外围低的梯度分异特征，但区域间差异呈现逐步弱化趋势；其中，土地价值产出困境、产业经济密度偏低以及居民财富积累能力受限，已成为制约县域耦合协调持续提升的关键因素。未来应通过激活人力资本升级转型潜能、破解土地资源存量利用瓶颈、重塑产业集群单位空间产出密度，系统提升要素协同效率，推动成都平原经济区63县“人–地–业”耦合协调与可持续发展。

Abstract: To systematically reveal the evolutionary characteristics and restorative mechanisms of the coupling and coordination development (CCD) of “Population-Land-Industry” (PLI) systems at the county level, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of PLI based on panel data from 63 counties in the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone from 2010 to 2023. By employing an improved coupling coordination degree model and an obstacle degree model, the study measures the CCD levels and identifies the primary restrictive factors. The results indicate that during the research period, the development levels of population, land, and industry in the 63 counties of the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone exhibited a steady upward trend. The CCD of the PLI system improved consistently, characterized by a significant “center-high, periphery-low” gradient distribution, although regional disparities showed a gradual narrowing trend. Furthermore, the dilemma of land value output, low industrial economic density, and limited wealth accumulation capacity of residents have emerged as key factors constraining the continuous improvement of county-level coupling coordination. In the future, it is essential to activate the potential for livelihood transformation of human capital, overcome bottlenecks in the utilization of stock land resources, and reshape the spatial output density of industrial clusters. By systematically enhancing factor synergy efficiency, the 63 counties of the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone can promote the sustainable development and high-level coupling coordination of the PLI system.