基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS的雪层杜鹃在中国的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Habitats for Rhododendron nivale Hook. f. in China Using MaxEnt Models and ArcGIS Change

摘要: 雪层杜鹃(Rhododendron nivale Hook. f.)作为典型的高山杜鹃物种，其地理分布受生境与气候因子的严格限制，对高山生态系统的稳定性具有重要指示意义。为明确雪层杜鹃的潜在适生区分布格局及主导影响因子，本研究基于225个分布点数据和19个生物气候因子，采用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件构建雪层杜鹃不同时期分布与环境因子的关系模型，选取的是当前及未来四个时期的四种气候情景(ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, ssp585)下其在中国潜在适生区的分布情况。结果表明，MaxEnt预测结果可靠(AUC = 0.956)，雪层杜鹃适生区面积为9.6 × 10⁶ km²，未来各个时期、气候情景下，雪层杜鹃适生区面积整体呈扩张趋势。等温性和气温季节性变动系数是影响雪层杜鹃适宜区分布的主导环境因子。当前雪层杜鹃高适生区呈集中分布特征，主要集中在我国西南地区，以四川盆地为核心，向周边的西藏东南部、云南北部、贵州西北部及甘肃南部延伸。本研究结果可为了解雪层杜鹃的生态需求与资源保护提供依据。

Abstract: Rhododendron nivale Hook. f., a typical alpine rhododendron species, exhibits a geographic distribution strictly constrained by habitat and climatic factors, making it a crucial indicator for the stability of alpine ecosystems. To clarify the distribution pattern of its potential habitat and dominant influencing factors, this study employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to construct a relationship model between the distribution of Rhododendron nivale at different time periods and environmental factors. This analysis utilized data from 225 distribution points and 19 bioclimatic factors, focusing on four climate scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, ssp585) to map its potential habitat distribution across China. Results indicate reliable MaxEnt predictions (AUC = 0.956), with a current suitable habitat area of 9.6 × 10⁶ km². Future projections under various climate scenarios show an overall expansion trend in suitable habitat area. Isothermality and seasonal temperature variation coefficient were identified as the dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of the snow-layer rhododendron’s suitable habitat. Currently, areas of high suitability for the snow-layer rhododendron are concentrated primarily in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding high-mountain regions of China. The findings of this study provide a basis for understanding the ecological requirements of the snow-layer rhododendron and for resource conservation efforts.